Texanomics

California State and Local Government Workers are Paid Nearly 50% More than in Texas

2012-01-31T19:26:00.000-08:00

I'm not sure, but it just might be possible that this has something to do with this.

And California state and local government would save $3.2 billion EVERY MONTH if the average month wage for full time government employees was the same as Texas.

source: US Census Bureau, 2010Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll.

The Real Story Behind US Oil Production

2012-01-25T20:16:00.000-08:00

"Right now, American oil production is a the highest that it's been in eight years. That's right - eight years. Not only that, but last year, we relied less on foreign oil than in any of the past sixteen years."

President Obama State of the Union Address, January 24, 2012

Even with deferring the demand side of this discussion for another day (i.e. the causal relationship between the weakest economy since Jimmy Carter and oil demand), this statement is appalling in its suggestion that the growth in American oil production has anything remotely to do with the actions of the current Administration.

Let's look at the Obama administration's own data on oil production. Here you will find monthly crude oil production for each state and federal offshore production. The federal government has its primary influence over oil and gas production when it comes to drilling on federal lands and in the federal offshore area. They also affect production through the environmental and other regulations that federal agencies choose to impose on production activities. No one in their right mind would argue that this administration has facilitated domestic energy production through sensible regulation, so let's focus on the actual trends in production.

The overwhelming growth in production has occurred in just three states: Oklahoma, North Dakota and Texas. The main thing these states have in common compared to the other major producers of oil: California, Alaska, and the federal offshore area? A glorious lack of federally owned land. Which means personal property rights. Which leads to a maximization of value (even when it comes to other sources of energy).

Texas alone accounts for 57% of the growth in oil production in recent years. In fact, in recent months, something quite remarkable has happened.

In 1998, offshore production in federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico and West Coast began to exceed Texas production as oil field matured. For the next decade, production in Texas largely flat-lined. However, personal property rights and actually allowing people to risk their capital without regulating them to death does a funny thing. It gives them an incentive to invest in new drilling techniques like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. And when oil prices rise, they can quickly respond to that and revitalize what were thought to be uneconomic wells. Texans did exactly that.

From August 2009 to August 2011 - the latest 24 months of data available - Texas oil production has surged an astonishing 40%. Meanwhile, production in the Federal Offshore Areas has plunged by nearly 20%. Drilling moratoria seem to shockingly result in less production. The end result was that this past summer, for the first time since the Clinton years, Texas oil production exceeded federal offshore production.

Had production in the federal offshore areas increased at the same rate as Texas over those 24 months, 32.7 million additional barrels of America oil would have been produced each month. At $100 per barrel, that production would have offset over $3 billion in oil imports, and reduced the August 2011 trade deficit by 7%.

In fact, when you exclude Texas from the picture, the trend in US oil production in pretty obvious. That's the real result of the policies imposed by this Administration, whether the President owns up to it or not.

source: Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy, Crude Oil Production Data Set

If US Employment Had Grown at Same Rate as Texas Since January 2009, We'd Have 5% Unemployment

2012-01-06T09:50:00.001-08:00

Probably offset by a stronger labor force.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, December Preliminary Data, November Local Area Unemployment Statistics.

Since January 2009, US Labor Force Has Shrunk. Texas' Labor Force Has Grown Nearly 5%

2012-01-06T09:47:00.000-08:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2011 Local Area Unemployment Statistics and December 2011 Labor Force Statistics Preliminary Data

Texas is Growing Private Sector Jobs More than Twice as Fast as the Rest of U.S.

2011-12-21T11:39:00.000-08:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, November Preliminary Data

3 out of Every 4 Net New Private Sector Jobs in the Past 5 Years Were Created in Texas

2011-11-02T18:46:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, September Data (preliminary)

Guess Who Added Manufacturing Jobs from 2004-2008: China, US, or Texas?

2011-10-24T18:24:00.000-07:00

2004 to 2008 was picked because those are the latest five years that data is available at the BLS for estimates of Chinese manufacturing employment.

Over the five year period from end of year 2004 to end of year 2008, Texas grew its manufacturing jobs by about 1.3%. Over the same period, total US manufacturing jobs fell by 10%. China manufacturing jobs...... fell by 7%.

And yes, Texas and US manufacturing jobs did take a hit in 2009, but Texas manufacturing jobs bounced back in 2010 and Texas had added manufacturing jobs in 8 of the last 10 months.

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (October preliminary data), US Bureau of Labor Statistics, China Employment and Compensation Costs in Manufacturing through 2008, Month Labor Review, March 2011

Texas Vs. US Job Growth Since January 2009

2011-09-26T18:15:00.000-07:00

With respect to the last post -- I guess it could've been worse -- 'cause it is.

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

From 2003-2007, Houston Added 4.5 Times the Jobs that Massachusetts Did With 1.4 Million Less People

2011-09-26T17:43:00.000-07:00

While Mitt Romney was Governor of Massachusetts, Massachusetts added just under 46,000 jobs.

Over that same period, just Houston added over 4.5 times that amount -- even though Houston's population was 1.4 million less than Massachusetts.

source: US Census Bureau, US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Texas' Personal Income Growth Over the Last 5 Years Was 66% Faster than US

2011-09-20T19:59:00.000-07:00

source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce

Texas total personal income growth rate over the last five years is substantially higher than the other large states and the US as a whole. Of the big states, Virginia was the only other state with growth faster than the US average. Among all states, only North Dakota (with a whopping 46% growth rate) and Wyoming (with a growth rate slightly higher than Texas) had faster growth than Texas.

And the state that was last among the big 10, and 49 out of 50 for all states? Michigan. Just a bang up job there, Ms. Granholm. Maybe this had something to do with it........

"I would do everything I could to influence how the forthcoming stimulus package would be structured so as to support a 'rush to green' strategy for Michigan," she writes. "Chrysler is a great company making great cars with a green future."

And by "great company", she means "poorly run company that needed to be bailed out with your money, about $1,000,000,000 of which you'll never see again". And by "great cars" she means "meh, you'll save gas when it doesn't start". And by "green future", she means "they'd still like $3,000,000,000 more of your money".

Texas and US Employment Growth During Perry and Bush

2011-09-08T08:06:00.000-07:00

Because relative performance matters. Yes, Texas outperformed the US in employment growth when President Bush was Governor.

And Texas continue to outperform the county with Governor Perry. And then it REALLY outpeformed the country starting in late 2005. After Texas passed an historic property tax cut. And tort reform. And worker's compensation reform. And reformed telecommunications regulation to allow billions of new investments in networks without outdated regulation.

And then businesses and people continued to flock to Texas in the worst economic recession since the 1930s, and while the US lost millions of jobs, Texas quickly rebounded and gap between job growth in Texas and the US widened greatly.

Oh, and for the period where both Rick Perry and Mitt Romney were both Governors? A picture is worth a thousand words.

source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor

Rise of the Regulators (But Not in Texas)

2011-09-07T21:20:00.001-07:00

The President's 2012 budget calls for total expenditures of $57 billion and nearly 291,000 federal employees to staff federal agencies that contain a regulatory function. To be fair, the Department of Homeland security makes up a big chunk of that, and although much of that agency is indefensible bureacratic bloat, it also contains the Coast Guard, Customs Agents, Border Security and Immigration Enforcement, much of which is really a law enforcement function. Pulling out Homeland Security still leaves 135,000 federal regulators, nearly 6,000 more than just two years ago, or a nearly 5% increase in bureaucrats. And that's actually a slowdown.

In contrast, Texas has been shrinking its regulatory ranks. In the budget passed by the last legislature and signed into law by Governor Perry, the number of regulators shrank by nearly 6%.

Any wonder businesses and people continue to flock to Texas?

sources: "Fiscal Stalemate Reflected in Regulator's Budget: An Analysis of the US Budget for Fiscal Years 2011 and 2012", Susan Dudley and Melinda Warren and Texas Legislative Budget Board

EPA Regulation Overload

2011-09-05T09:21:00.000-07:00

via National Association of Manufacturers

Texas Has Had a Lower Unemployment Rate than the US for 55 Straight Months

2011-08-20T11:33:00.000-07:00

That hasn't happened for a quarter of a century. From January 1986 to the start of the current streak in January 2007, it had happened in only three months.

And that's before adjusting for disparate labor market growth.

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics and Current Population Survey, July 2011 data

Gap Between Texas and US Job Growth Growing Wider

2011-08-16T20:20:00.000-07:00

If you haven't read it yet, go to Political Math and read the post there on Texas job growth. He reproduces much of the same analysis done over the last year on this site but wraps the individual pieces into a coherent overall picture of how phenomenal the Texas economy has performed in relation to the rest of the country.

He uses a slightly different data set than I tend to us- the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) versus the Current Employment Statistics (CES). I spent some time with that data set, and the general trends are the same as the analysis here, albeit with minor nuances from the difference in the employment surveys.

As I was playing with the data, I noticed something that is hinted at by his analysis, but took a little work to confirm. The graph below looks at the change in overall employment since December 2007 for Texas, the United States, and the United States without Texas.

As shown by the analysis done by @politicalmath, Texas is one of just a handful of states that has more people employed now than at the start of the recession - up about 250,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the country as a whole is still 6.9 million jobs short of pre-recession employment. Thus, in math that even Paul Krugman can do, without Texas, the country would be nearly 7.2 million jobs short of pre-recession employment. All intuitive.

But what is really interesting is that the gap between Texas and the rest of the country is actually growing. You can see a hit of it in the graph above, as the green and red lines get ever so slightly further apart over time. The graph below shows the change in that gap more clearly.

Is it huge? No. Is it pretty consistently growing. Yep.

The graph does seem to level off some in the last year. I'd like to think that's the rest of the country catching up - and there are undoubtedly some states that appear to be making progress (California, I'm actually looking over your head at Florida, Pennsylvania, and even Michigan behind you, so don't get excited). But between illegal Gulf of Mexico drilling moratoria, EPA overturning a 16-year old permitting program, the administration favoring lizards over jobs, and delaying standard federal assistance for individual Texans to recover from unprecedented wildfires and drought, I think there might be something else going on.......

source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics and Current Population Survey, Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 2011 data.

21% of U.S. Oil Production, 57% of Growth in Oil Production

2011-08-15T19:02:00.000-07:00

Texas produces 21% of the nation's crude oil production. That means a bunch of other states - and the federal government in off-shore properties- also have oil reserves. Surely then, if Texas is just "lucky" and benefiting from the boom in oil prices and increased drilling, the same should be true for the rest of the country, yes?

Yet, Texas accounts for a disproportionate share in the nation's increase in oil production. Between 2009 and 2010, Texas accounted for nearly 60% of the growth in production. From what I know of increased drilling in Eagle Ford Shale and Permian Basin, that percentage may actually go up this year.

Why? Texans created new drilling methods and technologies such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Those methods, first used to open vast new deposits of natural gas to production, are now being used to revitalize and increase production from old oil fields Also, Texas does something very novel -- it allows people to actually risk their capital and drill without unnecessary and burdensome regulations.

Of course, there is one area of the country that has greater oil production than Texas -- federal offshore waters in the Gulf of Mexico and off the West Coast. Give you one guess on what production has done there.

Lesson for other states and the federal government: don't bring a knife to an economic gunfight and be upset when you lose to the guy with the bazooka.

source: US Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, Crude Oil Production data (as of July 28, 2011)

Texas Accounts for Nearly 4 out of Every 5 Net New Private Sector Jobs in the Past 5 Years

2011-08-03T19:03:00.000-07:00

You'll notice these are mostly states that (1) have oil, gas, and other energy deposits, and (more importantly) (2) actually allow businesses to develop them and increase US energy production.

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 2011 (preliminary data)

Texas is the Only State to Add Jobs in Each of the Last 9 Months

2011-07-22T10:44:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, June Preliminary Data

Texas Wage Growth Faster than Other Big States and US

2011-07-19T07:38:00.001-07:00

Or "Paul Krugman is Still Wrong".

To quote:

"I won’t do a lot of data-crunching right now, but surely everything we know about Texas points to some combination of models I and II. Wages in Texas are low, and have probably fallen relative to those in slower-growth states."

Of course, had he done just a little bit of data-crunching, he would have seen that Texas' annual average wage growth over the last five years was markedly faster than the rest of the country as a whole, and faster than the other large states, all with those slower-growth rates.

So to recap the score:

Texas has faster job growth than the rest of the country;
Texas has actual labor market growth, unlike New York, California, and the other large states; and
Texas has higher wage growth, even higher than New York, which has been buoyed by no cost money from the Fed and the Wall Street bailouts.

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and County Employment and Wages, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Unemployment Rate Would be 7.9% if the Rest of US Was Like Texas

2011-07-08T19:16:00.000-07:00

With yet another deplorable jobs report (virtually no job growth and 9.2% unemployment rate), its again time to ask "What if?".

What if the US job growth rate since January 2010 had been the same as Texas? The above applies the Texas monthly job growth rate since January 2010 to US total non-farm employment and calculates the resulting unemployment rate, assuming the same labor force. Last month, the unemployment rate would have been under 8% instead of north of 9%.

Of course, if US job growth were the same as Texas, the US labor force might actually be expanding (like Texas) instead of contracting.

So what did the administration do this week?

Passed yet another set of EPA regulations that will kill jobs.
Talked about raising job-killing taxes. Again.
Refused to stop the NLRB from attacking successful states.

Sigh.

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2011 Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Texas's Unemployment Rate Would be Under 5.5% if Everyone Wasn't Moving to Texas

2011-06-14T20:57:00.001-07:00

It is increasingly popular for the media and others to discount the amazing job growth that has occurred in Texas through arguments such as "But Texas' unemployment rate is higher than other states at 8%."

Those arguments never include any discussion of how Texas' fast growing labor force is increasingly comprised of people fleeing other states to search for new opportunities in Texas. Indeed, the Texas labor force has continued to steadily grow even as more than 750,000 Americans have dropped out of the labor force since the beginning of 2009.

And so while the US unemployment rate has dropped half a percentage point over the past year, that is attributable almost entirely to people dropping out of the labor force, not robust job growth. Meanwhile, in Texas, the employment growth has been strong, but the unemployment rate masks that because there is actually a growing labor force.

The above chart takes one approach at adjusting April 2011 unemployment rates for the labor force changes in the five largest states and the United States as a whole. Basically, we took April 2011 employment and divided it by the June 2009 labor force in each state, since June 2009 is referred to by many as the start of the "recovery". Subtract that from 1 and you get an unemployment rate that removes the effects of labor force changes over the past several years.

Had so many people not stopped looking for work across the US, the unemployment rate would still be near 9.7%. Meanwhile, in Texas, the unemployment rate likely would have plummeted to under 5.5% had Texas not had to absorb so many economic refugees from other states.

And California's unemployment rate, as hard as it may be to believe, would be even worse than it looks today. Had the Empire State not had so many who have given up on finding work there, New York's unemployment rate would exceed 9%. Maybe Nobel Prizes should be conditioned on the ability to do simple division.

But Texans will keep the "Open for Business" sign out. Ya'll come on in if you want to work. Just leave the liberal crap where you came from.

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, April 2011 (preliminary)

Texas' Labor Force Continues to Grow While US Shrinks

2011-06-02T15:53:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 2011 Preliminary Data

Texas Had Nearly 3/4 of Net Private Sector Employment Growth in Last 5 Years

2011-06-01T08:40:00.001-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 2011 Preliminary Data

Texas is Only Large State to Return to Pre-recession Jobs Level

2011-06-01T08:38:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 2011 Preliminary Data

Texas Has Added Over 1 Million Jobs in the Past Decade

2011-06-01T08:34:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 2011 Preliminary Data

Texas is One of 3 States to Recover all Jobs Lost During the Recession

2011-06-01T08:27:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 2011 Regional and State Employment Data (Preliminary)

Texas is the Only Large State with More Private Sector Jobs Than 10 Years Ago

2011-03-15T08:35:00.000-07:00

Texas Has Added More than 200,000 Jobs in 2010; Has the Fastest Employment Growth Rate of All States

2010-12-20T06:04:00.000-08:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2010 Preliminary Data

67% of Private Sector Job Growth Over Last 5 Years Has Been in Texas; 83% if Hurricane Katrina Effects Removed

2010-12-04T17:59:00.000-08:00

Note: Louisiana lost 155,000 private sector jobs from August 2005 to October 2005 due to Hurricane Katrina. The effect of that job loss is removed from the second chart.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, October Preliminary Data

Texas Added 19K More Jobs in the Past Year Than the Other 49 States Combined

2010-11-01T20:38:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Texas' Private Sector Job Growth is Nearly 5x the National Rate

2010-10-31T21:01:00.000-07:00

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Every Texas Metro Area has Added Private Sector Jobs in the Last Year

2010-10-31T20:59:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Net Income Inflow for High Tax and Low Tax States

2010-10-26T20:25:00.001-07:00

sources: Tax Foundation, Internal Revenue Service

Income Inflow from Other States

2010-10-26T20:23:00.000-07:00

source: Tax Foundation, Internal Revenue Service

12 Month Employment Growth: Cap and Trade States vs. No Cap and Trade States

2010-10-21T23:38:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Cap and Trade states are the member states of Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Western Climate Initiative, and Midwest Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord. Arizona and Utah not included in WCI states because of actions taken by AZ Governor and UT Legislature to withdraw from cap and trade activities

12 Month Employment Growth: No Tax Increase vs. Tax Increase States

2010-10-20T19:06:00.000-07:00

sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Tax Increases by State from Center for Budget and Policy Priorities Report, "State Tax Changes in Response to the Recession", March 8, 2010

Domination

2010-10-12T20:44:00.000-07:00

Texas Rebounds Faster than Other Large States

2010-10-12T05:38:00.000-07:00

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Rising (Lone) Star - Texas' GDP Growth Surges in 2000s

2010-10-05T07:21:00.001-07:00

Source: US Census Bureau

* data set for 1990s has change in methodology in 1998

Texas' Unemployment Rate Lower than US for 44 Straight Months

2010-10-05T07:12:00.001-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Net Migration - Texas Welcomes Those Yearning to Breathe Free

2010-09-21T22:02:00.000-07:00

source: US Census Bureau

Nearly 4 Million New Texans Since 2000. Welcome Home.

2010-09-21T22:01:00.000-07:00

source: US Census Bureau

79% of Private Sector Job Growth Over Last 5 Years Has Been in Texas

2010-09-21T21:55:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, August Preliminary Data

Texas Blows Away the Other 25 Largest States in Private Sector Job Creation

2010-09-21T21:53:00.000-07:00

Texas is 1 of 3 States to Add Manufacturing Jobs Every Month This Year

2010-09-21T21:51:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (August Preliminary Data)

Texas Has Added More Jobs Since 2001 than 15 States' Total Jobs

2010-09-21T21:47:00.001-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, August Preliminary Data

Texas Metro Areas Are Creating More Jobs than Entire States

2010-09-12T21:50:00.000-07:00

23 of 25 Texas Metro Areas Have Positive Job Growth So Far in 2010

2010-09-12T21:45:00.000-07:00

Another Look at Manufacturing Growth in Texas

2010-09-08T21:58:00.000-07:00

source: United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Growth in Manufacturing Since 2000

2010-09-08T21:56:00.000-07:00

source: United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Growing Exports the Texas Way

2010-09-07T17:10:00.000-07:00

source: United States Census Bureau

GDP Growth In Non-Income Tax States Vs. Income Tax States

2010-08-30T19:40:00.001-07:00

source: United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Another Look at GDP Growth Since 2000

2010-08-30T19:38:00.000-07:00

Source: United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

GDP Growth Since 2000

2010-08-30T19:33:00.000-07:00

source: United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

San Antonio Private Sector Job Growth Beats All Other States Except One (Awww)

2010-08-25T17:49:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Private Sector Job Growth Beats All Other States

2010-08-25T17:47:00.001-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

DFW-Arlington Private Sector Job Growth Beats All Other States

2010-08-25T17:45:00.001-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Private Sector Job Growth Beats all Other States

2010-08-25T17:41:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Gravitational Pull

2010-08-22T18:18:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Maps from US Department of Interior

Private Sector Job Growth: July 2005-July 2010

2010-08-22T18:16:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2010 Preliminary Data

Why the Texas Jobs Report for July Was Better than June

2010-08-20T13:56:00.000-07:00

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2010 Preliminary Data

Private Sector Wage Growth

2010-08-19T19:04:00.000-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statisitcs, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

Texas vs. California Private Sector Employment Trend

2010-08-09T19:35:00.000-07:00

source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Blowing Away the Competition

2010-08-02T19:45:00.000-07:00

Lapping the Field: 2005 to 2010 Private Sector Employment Growth

2010-07-29T18:37:00.000-07:00

Last 12 Months Job Growth

2010-07-05T08:08:00.000-07:00

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Texas vs U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Since 2000

2010-07-01T19:52:00.001-07:00

source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics